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Tariffs are back—and this time, it’s chaos. In this episode, Ambrose Conroy walks us through what’s happening in Washington as of April 28th, where policy shifts are fast and unpredictable.

With talk of embargoes and “Global Tariff Day,” the administration is pushing to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., even if it means higher costs and economic disruption.

Free trade is done. A 10–15% global base tariff is likely. The U.S. is leaning hard into mercantilism, aiming to favor domestic production. However, with so many moving parts and unclear rules, companies are frozen. All eyes are on May 3rd—when decisions could drop that change everything overnight.

For supply chain leaders, the old low-cost country strategy is falling apart. China is expensive and complicated. Tariffs make Mexico uncertain. Other regions come with their own risks. The only reliable answer? Make it in America. But that brings a new set of problems.

To support the shift, the administration plans to add one million new manufacturing apprentices annually. If it happens, it could help—but it’s not here yet. In the meantime, companies have to be strategic. That means filling up U.S. plants, identifying where capacity exists, and moving production where it makes sense.

Financial risk is rising fast. With one in five suppliers predicted to face distress, Ambrose urges leaders to look closely at warning signs—and to start real conversations. The solution is clear: Set up a trade and tariff war room, staff it with your best people, and build real-time models to stay ahead of disruption.

The companies that survive this won’t be the ones cutting costs. They’ll be the ones investing—in people, systems, and long-term strategy. Ambrose makes the contrast clear: best-in-class companies are staying ahead, while poor performers are cutting themselves into a corner.

If the industry wants to rebuild, it has to change how it operates. That means better communication between OEMs and suppliers, a shared commitment to stability, and a willingness to collaborate in ways the industry hasn’t seen in decades.

Because in the end, it’s simple: you can’t build cars without parts. And you can’t solve this alone.

Themes discussed in this episode:

• The unpredictability and chaos of today’s global tariff landscape
• The financial collapse looming over suppliers that fail to adapt to new trade rules
• The shift from global trade to modern-day mercantilism in U.S. policy
• Why best-in-class companies invest in people, process, and continuous upgrades
• The push to rebuild U.S. manufacturing with apprenticeships and skilled labor
• Why building a trade and tariff war room is now mission-critical
• The urgent need for cross-functional collaboration to survive tariff-driven disruption

Name: Ambrose Conroy

Title: Founder and CEO of Seraph Consulting

About: Ambrose is the Founder and CEO of Seraph Consulting. He founded Seraph to solve complex, bet-the-business problems for clients and to be the go-to partner for driving operational excellence. Before founding Seraph, Ambrose served as Vice President of Supply Chain Solutions at NAI Global and led the West Coast Global Business Transformation Group at PA Consulting, where he specialized in due diligence, crisis management, and strategic transformation. He began his career as a consultant at CSC.

Connect: LinkedIn

Mentioned in this episode:

• AIAG Supply Chain Conference
• Episode with Megan Hunter: Tech, Sustainability, & Talent: How Martinrea Is Building the Supply Chain of Tomorrow
• Automotive Industry Action Group (AIAG) Launches New Website and Brand Designed to Ignite the Next-Generation of Automotive Progress
• Death by China: Confronting the Dragon - A Global Call to Action

[04:56] Free Trade Is Over: Ambrose unpacks the real-time tariff storm—from China tensions and "Global Tariff Day" to why the auto industry is frozen in place, waiting on May 3rd.

[10:29] Back to Tariffs, Back to Basics: Ambrose breaks down why today’s trade policy isn’t new at all—it’s a throwback to tariff-funded government, rising protectionism, and a full-blown push to re-industrialize America.

[11:45] Make It Here: With uncertainty abroad and tariffs rising, the only stable strategy left for supply chain leaders may be the most old-school one—manufacture in the U.S. and rebuild from within.

[17:15] Red Flags and War Rooms: Supplier delays, tariff renegotiations, and quiet pushback might signal deeper financial distress—Ambrose explains why it’s time to build a war room, model every risk, and get on the phone before it’s too late.

[21:12] Too Late? Never: Even if you’ve been asleep at the wheel, there’s still time—if you act fast, build a top-tier war room, fortify your balance sheet, and rethink your entire footprint.

[25:56] Invest or Collapse: World-class companies grow by investing in people, processes, and tech—while poor performers cut their way to the bottom and wonder why they’re bleeding out.

[28:44] Supply Chain Reboot: Reindustrializing America won't be powered by emails and spreadsheets—it’ll take bold moves, real conversations, and a complete mindset shift from both OEMs and suppliers to survive the chaos and bring manufacturing home.

Top Quotes:

[08:10] Ambrose: “We believe that there'll be a base tariff rate moving forward. It's going to be 10 to 15% globally, so the days of free trade are over. We're now back to mercantilism. So there's going to be one winner, and from a US perspective, that's going to be the United States. We'll see if that actually plays out, 'cause there are a lot of moving pieces. We're playing chess, and it's not a game that we as a country are very good at. So, we're playing chess with the rest of the world. We have a short-term perspective, and we're gonna have to see what happens as they start to push and try to drive very rapid change to a supply chain which does not move very quickly.”

[14:42] Ambrose: “Early on, there was this view that human resources were about developing human capital. Somewhere along the way, we've shifted to cost control, risk management, and human resources. We've completely neglected developing human capital. As I mentioned earlier, this apprenticeship program that we're seeing the US government start to try to push—no details are out there; it's just a goal that was tossed out in a statement—but that's how these things tend to start. So, if that actually comes to be, and we see a subsidized apprenticeship program, much like Germany has, that would be absolutely magical for reinvigorating the United States. And I think that would give us the confidence that we have the technical capability.”

[19:20] Ambrose: “I was on a MEMA call on Friday, and they had someone on there talking, and what their analysis was that 20% of the supply base is going to be severely distressed coming out of this—20%, one in five. So, you have to be looking very closely for any anomalies coming out of your suppliers—any pushback, any quality issues, any delivery issues—and really knowing who those suppliers are that are weakest. You know who's in trouble, you know who you've been talking to already. But you need to have that list, and we're encouraging everyone, for this whole issue, to set up a tariff and trade war room specifically for this. A supply chain war room, really, so that you understand what's happening. 'Cause this isn't just about tariffs and trade; it's also about financial distress. It's about needing to dual source, or resource, or redesign so that you can take control of these extra costs that are coming in right now.”

[26:05] Ambrose: “What I've seen from the best-in-class companies is they're willing to invest. They invest in people. They invest in processes. They invest in equipment. The poorest performing companies that I know of, they try to cut their way to profitability. And there are only so many cuts you can make. And at some point, that pain becomes so great, 'cause you've cut so much, you're basically just going to die.”

[29:07] Ambrose: “We have to become more collaborative as an automotive industry than we know how to be. We have to figure out how we communicate, how we work together, and acknowledge that this isn't about everyone getting every last penny out of this. We have to work together as a community and figure out how suppliers can survive, because you can't build a car if you're missing parts. So, this is going to require a paradigm shift from purchasing at the OEMs. It's gonna require a paradigm shift at the supply base as well. We have to find a way to be more collaborative. The model I like to look at is Honda—how they go through and they audit the books and they make sure all of their suppliers are making a certain profit so that they can stay viable and move forward.”